Post-Hurricane Recovery and Strike Resolutions Expected to Boost Job Growth
The U.S. labor market is poised for a robust recovery in November, according to forecasts ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report. The report, set for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show a significant rebound in hiring following October’s underwhelming figures, which were impacted by hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing.
November Projections: A Return to Growth
Economists estimate nonfarm payrolls will have increased by 215,000 in November, sharply recovering from October’s disappointing addition of 12,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.1%, maintaining its historically low levels.
Key numbers expected for November:
- Nonfarm payrolls: +215,000 (vs. +12,000 in October)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1% (unchanged)
- Average hourly earnings (month-over-month): +0.3% (down from +0.4%)
- Average hourly earnings (year-over-year): +3.9% (slightly lower than +4%)
- Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 hours (unchanged)
Goldman Sachs economists suggest the anticipated growth stems largely from a post-hurricane rebound. “Payroll growth in states impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton decelerated by roughly 70,000 in October,” wrote Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels. They project a recovery of about 50,000 jobs in November. An additional 37,500 payrolls are expected as major strikes, including one at Boeing, came to an end.
Recent Trends in the U.S. Labor Market
While hiring has slowed compared to earlier this year, the labor market shows signs of resilience.
- Job openings: Rose to 7.74 million in October, up from 7.37 million in September.
- Quits rate: Increased to 2.1%, indicating stronger confidence among workers.
- Private payrolls: ADP reported 146,000 private-sector jobs added in November, a dip from October’s 184,000.
Interestingly, wages for job switchers saw a median year-over-year increase to 7.2% in November, up from 6.7% in October. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted, “If job switchers are earning more, it signals a labor market that remains somewhat tight.”
Fed Perspective and Market Sentiment
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell shared an optimistic view at the New York Times DealBook Summit, stating, “The U.S. economy is in very good shape.” Powell highlighted that labor market risks have moderated, growth is stronger than expected, and inflation, while elevated, remains manageable.
Markets have largely priced in a 70% chance of a December rate cut, with economists predicting that a jobs report in line with expectations would unlikely alter the Federal Reserve’s approach.